I played in a junior match today with ch00 that was especially fun because we were treated with great teammates... Roger Lee and Jeremy Fournier, another pair for or squad in Philadelphia.
Here is a slam hand from the match that contained a fairly common theme:
Take note of Roger's nice play of the Spade Nine on the first round of trumps. This gave North, Dana Berkowitz, a chance to misplay the suit by crossing to hand and finessing East out of a hypothetical initial holding of Jxxx, which resulted in a swing for our team when Jason made an overtrick. So what's the correct play?
The answer to this question--like many--is: it depends. If Roger Lee is sitting West, then you should play him to have started with an initial holding of J9xx. The reason is that a good player sitting in the West seat will always play the nine on the first round of trumps in this position, otherwise you can hardly go wrong. J9xx is exactly 3 times as likely an initial holding as stiff 9 since there are 3 ways West can hold J9xx and only one way they can hold a singleton 9; therefore, it's 3 times more likely that they're playing the 9 from J9xx. If a poor player is sitting West, however, then it's correct to play East for Jxxx since West would probably never find the falsecard even though this is the quintessential mandatory falsecard position. If the caliber of the player is somewhere in between, then you have to judge whether West will find the play of the 9 from J9xx more than 33% of the time before you can determine the correct play.
Nice play, Roger!
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Nice story.
ReplyDeleteThis falsecard isn't mandatory: technically you should only do it some of the time. (Practically speaking may be another matter.)
Let's say if you don't play then 9 from J9xx, then declarer will be on a 50% guess.
A. Always play the 9 from J9xx: Declarer will play you for J9xx when you play the 9, and win 3/4 of the relevant holdings (relevant holdings are J9xx and 9)
B. Never play the 9 from J9xx: Declarer will play you for 9 when you play the 9, and picks up half the J9xx holdings, i.e. 2.5/4 of the relevant holdings.
C. Play the 9 1/3 of the time from J9xx: Either way, declarer picks up 2/4 of the relevant holdings.
Side note: Technically this can lead to sloppy thinking/excuses as declarer: "It doesn't matter which player I play for J-fourth, because if my opponent is perfect the 9 told me nothing."
Of course, practically speaking, you have to be a bit more of a poker player as both defender and declarer.
Nevermind, it is mandatory. Obviously declarer can't pick up the suit the other way if you don't play the 9 (oops)!
ReplyDeleteWhat I said should work for some other hypothetical situation, though :(