Round 1 Preview

As I believe I've said before, our first match will be 10/10/10 at 10:00 AM EDT.  This match will be against USA Red, the second of two teams from the United States, the only country with multiple entrants.

In a round robin format it is almost essential that two teams from the same nation face off the the first round.  Dedicated readers may remember this post.  The problem here is essentially the same.  If two teams from the US were to play each other in a late-round match, one may be in a much better position to qualify for the knockouts than the other and the organizers would face potential dumping issues where the lower-ranked team may purposefully blow the match.

Last night we had a small preview of this match as Fay-Chiu; Lee-Fournier went up against Katz-Goldfein; Lien-Brescoll.  Over 14 boards, we won 44-34 over 14 boards.  The result would have been much better for us if I hadn't chucked 22 IMPs for no good reason.  Here was one of those hands:



Looking at the hand there were a few things that struck me.

1) 4HCP, usually enough to bid a vulnerable game opposite a 2NT opener
2) 3 10s, all in support of the honors I held
3) A poor 5-card suit, with all other honors in my short suits

So some pluses and some minuses.  Overall I felt that our chances of making game were somewhat slim.  I decided to bid puppet stayman and: A) If Jason bid 3H, bid game, B) If he bid 3D, pass, C) If he bid 3S, bid 3NT.  In hindsight this strikes me as a very poor plan, as I'm always bidding game except under one condition.  This is inconsistent!  Furthermore, there is an aspect that favors bidding in a lot of these situations.  When you hold only a 6-card minor-suit headed by the Q opposite a 2N opener it's often a good idea to bid 3NT because it's unlikely you'll take exactly 8 tricks.  Either your suit will come in when partner has a fit and you'll take a lot of tricks, or it won't and you won't take many at all.

Here I decided that my chances of taking tricks would be much better in a diamond contract.  However, I'm looking at the wrong aspect of the hand.  I was considering that we'd be more likely to make 3D than 2N, when I should have been considering how probable we were to make 3N in comparison to 3D.  If we make 3N 32.5% of the time when we make 3D (I won't do the math to include multiple undertricks or when 3D doesn't make) then I should kick down the door and bid 3N.  While there is a somewhat lucky layout for the full deal, 3N rolls and we lost 11-IMPs when my counterpart wasn't afraid to bid 3N.