A Speculator's Haul

Financial advisors and gamblers are well-acquainted with the term ‘speculation,’ an investment that doesn’t guarantee the safety of invested monies but often has a large upside.  High-risk ventures can yield large profits or big losses—both dependant on the odds of success and the size of the principal.  Bridge players often employ a facet of this risk strategy when they ‘take a view.’

In bridge a ‘spec double’ is a penalty double that is made without any guarantee that a contract will go off.  Often, the doubler can only see a fraction of the tricks necessary to defeat a contract.  The risk is offset by the potential reward achieved by a multi-trick defeat, or the induction of a lead from partner that may be necessary to beat a hand that would otherwise have been made.  The opportunity to unholster this weapon usually arises in invitational auctions. 

Here is a hand from our 7^th round match against China Hong Kong in the U26 World Championships:

There are a number of indicators here that you may be green-lit to let your spec double off the chains:

1. The opponents went through an invitational auction, not a game-force.  Not only that, but the hesitation indicates that North doesn’t have the world’s greatest invite.  This means that…
2. Both players have limited their hands so you know your partner must have some values.
3. Your spade values lie over the spade bidder.  Partner’s presumed values lie over opener’s suits, i.e. most of their finesses will lose.
4. This double has the Lightneresque quality of asking for a spade lead (dummy’s first-bid suit), which may be key to the defense.  It’s easy to envision partner leading the unbid suit with catastrophic effect when the contract might be defeated multiple tricks by alternating major-suit leads.
5. The opponents may be cold for 3N but get cold feet and run, pushing them out of a makeable game. 

Before you try your hand at a spec double, be confident that you’re in a position where the opposition won’t be able to redouble you, a play that may push the risk-reward envelope too high.  It turns out that on this particular hand our opponents had a bit of a misunderstanding, but a well-timed spec double turned a poor -150 into a disastrous -500 for the pair from Hong Kong, even after they ran to 4D.  The full hand: